The Botereid

Tuesday, November 02, 2004

General Trends

Is it safe to say that late results go Democratic?

Here's the logic. Late results are the product of precincts taking a long time to report. The more precincts, the more voters, the longer it will take to get results from certain counties. Voters and precincts are concentrated in cities. Cities tend to vote Democrat. So, late results should go Democrat.

This certainly wasn't what we saw in Florida. But at first bleary glance it seems to make sense, and it might even be happening in Ohio. If this model pulls Kerry through there, I have a feeling we'll be hearing a lot more about this soon-to-be "truism."


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